US/Chinese competition for resources creates opportunities for Latin America

- Taylor Kirk*


Proponents of dependency theory as applied to Latin America’s relationship with the U.S. will have to re-route their radars to a new target: China. Having grown at lightning speed over the past several decades, China has recently courted Latin American leaders in an effort to secure access to much-needed raw materials. Though many, including most recently Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, have called for measures to decrease economic dependence on the United States, little has actually been done to lessen the need for investment and aid from up north. China’s insatiable thirst for the commodities and manufactures Latin America has to offer gives the region an opportunity to spark a bidding war for its natural resources.

Starting with former Chinese President Jiang Zemin’s 12-day trip to Latin America in 2001, China’s government and businessmen (often one and the same) haved worked hard to cement relationships with the region’s leaders and business elite. From investing in Venezuelan and Brazilian oil fields, Chilean copper mines, or Cuban telecommunications equipment (i.e. spying technologies, if you believe wary US officials), China has developed partnerships with nearly every country south of the Rio Grande.

China’s growing economic clout is likely to remain a huge advantage for Latin American economies. With few exceptions, most economies are driven by commodity exports, whose prices have risen in response to soaring Chinese demand. Copper prices recently hit an all-time high, driven by the world’s largest copper consumer, China. The same story applies to oil and gas, an industry in which China has invested in Brazil and Venezuela. Chinese officials have indicated that they will make overtures to the new Bolivian government after elections in December.

In addition to a nearly perfectly matched economic relationship, Chinese interest in Latin America has given the region’s leaders a new trump card when dealing with their often disconcerting northern neighbor, the United States. After President Bush’s recent trip through South America left many Latin Americans less than impressed, calls for increased economic cooperation with other partners and within Latin America itself surfaced. Since the United States has been unwilling to reduce subsidies and make other concessions for equitable trade agreements, sellers of agricultural products and other raw materials have begun to look for markets elsewhere. China has run a trade deficit with the region for the last two years, according to a CRS Report for Congress.

After Bush’s visit to Latin America failed to generate positive opinion of himself and his country, U.S. policy makers began to examine the ways in which they might repair relations with their southern neighbors. The presence of China as an important trading partner, though not yet on the level of the United States, gives Latin American governments the chance to play one off another, to their benefit. Policy wonks are well aware of this, and the above-mentioned CRS Report and The Heritage Foundation have both called for a series of gestures to regain influence in many insultingly call ‘America’s backyard’. However, as the intensity of the protests greeting Bush in Argentina recently show, it may be a bit late.

*Image from The Globalist

Read more!

Peru errs in sea border dispute

-Taylor Kirk




Peru’s Congress unanimously passed a law November 3rd to redraw their sea border with Chile, claiming more than 14,000 sq m of territory now held by Chile. The timing of the claim is unfortunate, as issues like the extradition of former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori from Chile and the prosecution of a wealthy Chilean businessman in Peru have strained ties between the nations. The sudden claim might also cause some to wonder whether the timing was in fact fortunate for Peruvian politicians. With a sagging economy and low consumer confidence, the Peruvian Congress may be looking for an easy scapegoat with which to redirect the populace’s attentions.

Peru’s claim to additional maritime territory seems baseless. In 2002 foreign ministers from Ecuador, Chile, and Peru met to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the “Santiago Declaration”, which outlines the claims that Peru now disputes. In the declaration, all parties “express their satisfaction and pride” with the agreement, that stipulated “the principle of the 200 nautical miles, practised worldwide by states, as an essential part of the law of the sea”. Though no mention is made of the horizontal line between the two countries’ maritime borders, the satisfaction expressed by all parties of the success of the agreement over the previous 50 years indicates that all parties accepted the line that runs due west from the coast of the Peru/Chile border that divides the maritime territory. This is the line that Peru now disputes.

The re-affirmation of the agreement just three years ago leads one to consider political factors for the resurgence of the claim. With elections coming up in April, congressional delegates may be jockeying for easy populist support by verbally attacking a nation Peruvians have long held distrust for. Fujimori’s unexpected return to the continent shook up Peru’s political scene, and President Alejandro Toledo, who signed the law claiming the new borders, is hugely unpopular. He may be seeking even the smallest legacy for his term, as he has little to no chance of winning re-election. This is all unfortunate, because Peru’s Congress has a mountain of other priorities it should tackle before revising claims it celebrated just three years ago. (UNCLOS, COVEMAR)

Read more!

Elections in review: Update

Sweeping changes in store for the region
-Taylor Kirk

Latin America is poised to undergo major changes in the next year, with no fewer than 10 elections set to take place in the next 15 months. Some regimes will fall, others will be reinforced, and the only certainty is that the region will experience several ‘firsts’ that will take it in an unknown direction. Much ado of a ‘pink revolution’ has been made in the U.S. press, though the political processes happening all over Latin America are far too divergent to constitute any general trend or revolution, let alone a much-feared ‘pink’ one. Democracy is likely to be further consolidated in nations like Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Costa Rica, while power contests in Bolivia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Peru will test the foundations on which their political systems rest.

*Bolivians will go to the polls December 18, a date set amid controversy over the redistricting of several important Congressional seats. Incumbent President Eduardo Rodriguez Veltze has been the "caretaker" since Carlos Mesa's resignation June 9th, and will not run in December. Much to the consternation of the US, recent polls show coca farmer Evo Morales as the front runner, though with only 33% of the likely vote. The mere thought that a Socialist narcotics producer could become President of the potentially profit-bearing country puts fear in the heart of foreign investors and US officials alike. In a recent visit to Spain Morales himself remarked that his election would be a "triumph for the Bolivian people and a nightmare for the United States". His optimism may come too early, as former President Jorge Quiroga is less than 6 percentage points behind him. Quiroga named Maria Rene Duchen his running mate October 22nd, who would become the nation's first female Vice-president should Quiroga make a last-minute comeback. The Organization of American States has offered to monitor the elections.

*Nicaraguans will vote at an undetermined date next year, in an election also watched closely by American officials. Current President Enrique Bolaños is up for re-election, but a strange pairing of Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega and former President Arnoldo Alemán has come together to defeat him, or perhaps even boot him from office before the election. The trouble began just after Bolaños, Alemán’s former Vice-president, won the 2001 presidential elections on an anti-corruption platform. Bolaños then shocked insiders by doing exactly as he had promised on the campaign trail: he began proceedings against his former boss, Alemán, for corruption and embezzlement. Alemán was handed a 20-year sentence in 2002, after US officials seized $5 million worth of his illicit assets held in Florida.

Alemán then appealed to his one-time political foe Ortega, who through the Sandinista legacy holds effective control of Nicaragua’s court system. In return for Alemán’s support through his Constitutionalist Liberal Party, which controls the legislature, Ortega secured Alemán’s release from house arrest, and he is allowed to roam Managua as a free man. The two have since done everything within their power to make trouble for Bolaños, from trying to prosecute him for allegedly spurious campaign finance law abuses to attempting to impeach him. An effort to strip Bolanos of his immunity from prosecution was struck down by Congress October 27th.

Much ado has been made in the international press about the possible return of Ortega to the leadership of the Central American nation, though polls in August suggested that the Sandinista leader is unlikely to garner more than 12% of the vote. Instead, his former party-mate Herty Lewites leads the pack at 25%. Nicaraguans are not impressed with the Oertega/Alemán pact, and some polls indicate that up to 80% of the population opposes them. If Enrique Bolaños manages to stay in power until elections are called next year, the people will make their preference known.

*Farther south, Chileans are expected to elect their first-ever female President this December, making Michelle Bachelet of the Socialist Party also the first Chilean President to govern under the new Constitution signed in September. Current President Ricardo Lagos cannot run again, though Bachelet is of his party and is expected to carry on the center left reforms he began. As the former Minister of Defense, she holds 41% of the probable vote, making it likely that she will be in a runoff election in January. Her most formidable competition comes from billionaire Sebastián Piñera, who has split the right between himself and former Pinochet administration member Joaquín Lavin. If triumphant this December, Bachelet will be handed a booming economy, new bilateral trade deals, and increased prospects for Chilean leadership in a recently more cohesive region.

*In tiny Costa Rica former President and Nobel Prize winner Oscar Arias Sánchez of the PLN (National Liberation Party) is looking to make a comeback in elections in February next year, after Congress passed a law in 2003 to allow presidential re-election. He is still quite popular, almost 30 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Ottón Solis of the Citizen’s Action Party. Sánchez is a strong supporter of CAFTA, in a country where 47% of voters view the free trade agreement as a positive move for their country, versus 25% who do not favor the agreement. Solis has come out against it, calling CAFTA a “menace” to the country. Current President Abel Pacheco has postponed ratification of the agreement, pending fiscal reforms that must first pass Costa Rica’s Legislative Assembly.

*April 2006 will see the election of a new Peruvian president, though the full slate of candidates is uncertain. Current President Alejandro Toledo is barred by the one-term limit from running for an immediate second term, and in any case his current 12% approval rating does not bode well for his chances of re-election. Several of his ministers have indicated that they will resign before October 7th in order to run, as is required 6 months before the elections by Peruvian law. Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has indicated that he will not run, prompting a sigh of relief from those who attribute Peru’s longest unbroken stretch of economic growth to him, and prefer that he stay put.

International attention to Peru’s presidential contest has focused primarily on former President Alberto Fujimori, who was running an almost farcical campaign from exile in Tokyo until he made a surprise visit to Chile where he was promptly arrested. Peruvian officials are scrambling to extradite him back to the country to face charges of corruption and human rights abuse. Congress long ago adopted a resolution banning him from public office until 2010, though Fujimori has steadily ignored the prohibition. Unfortunately for the would-be comeback kid, polls suggest that he would be unlikely to garner much support, and Popular Christian Party member Lourdes Flores remains the front-runner.

*Mexicans will elect a replacement for President Vicente Fox in July next year, the first election in which Mexican expatriates will also be allowed to vote. Though 4 million eligible voters live in the United States, candidates are prohibited by Mexican law from campaigning there. The current favorite is former Mexico City mayor and PRD (Democratic Revolution Party) member Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who was the target of an investigation instigated by Fox on flimsy charges that he constructed a hospital on private lands after ignoring a court order not to do so. Lopez Obrador’s Democratic Revolution Party will go up against Felipe Calderon of Fox’s National Action Party and Roberto Madrazo of PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party). Mexico's government recently paid off $1.4 billion in foreign debt in an attempt to ensure financial stability during the elections.

*Colombia’s Constitutional Court is set to rule soon on whether popular President Alvaro Uribe should be allowed to run for re-election, and if allowed, he is sure to win. The Court is widely expected to return a positive verdict for Uribe, as he has already cleared the hurdle of changing the constitution to allow re-election of the president. The Court's decision will refer to whether the constitutional change will apply to the current president. Given the absence of a prominent opposition candidate, an unlikely prohibition of his re-election would likely only prompt him to anoint a successor as soon as possible to carry on his agenda for the country.

*In neighboring Venezuela elections are also tenatively scheduled for next year, though Latin Americanists debate whether former coup-plotter-turned-democratically-elected-President Hugo Chavez will attempt to hang on to power by undemocratic means. His approval ratings dipped slightly below the critical 50% level for the first time recently, though as in Colombia’s case, the opposition is fractured and without a leader. His Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) party holds a lead in upcoming legislative elections.

*Despite alarmist cries from the right in the United States of a “pink revolution” sweeping the region, there is no such thing. Though Latin American voters may have decided to reject a whole-hearted embrace of the neo-liberal economic reforms promoted by the Washington Consensus, they are by no means veering far to the left. Wall Street’s virtual heart attack when Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was elected turned out to be unnecessary trepidation, as Lula implemented fiscal reforms that have kept the country stable and able to pay its debts. Similarly, the citation of Evo Morales’ rise in Bolivian politics as a return to Communism in South America is overblown. His rise in politics reflects a preference in Bolivia for increasing protectionism, though this is understandable in light of how poorly privatization has been carried out in the country. Chile’s Michelle Bachelet is a member of the Socialist Party, but the reforms implemented by party-mate Ricardo Lagos have given the country the strongest growth in the region. The U.S. right can always turn to its Colombian friend Alvaro Uribe as an example of a success from the right, as he has been able to achieve significant breakthroughs in his country’s cycle of violence and coherent economic policy while retaining popularity.

*It is possible that Hugo Chavez’ prominence in the U.S. media has given many the impression that Latin America is once again becoming a problematic neighbor of the U.S. Chavez has adopted a belligerent attitude towards U.S. policy and is very publicly rallying Latin American countries to wean themselves from dependency on their northern neighbor. The impression of Chavez applied to the rest of Latin America is flawed, however, and is due more than anything to Chavez’s flamboyant personality, his love of publicity, and the discomfort in the relationship between him and U.S. President George W. Bush. His antics should not blind Latin America-watchers to the fact that much of the region is consolidating democratic political institutions and growing economically, albeit slower than desired. Elections throughout Latin America will demonstrate how each nation is approaching these processes in individual ways that don’t constitute a feared ‘pink-revolution’ that will cause the region to regress.

***Many thanks to Canadian consulting firm Angus Reid for polling data.

Read more!

A new iron lady for Chile

-Taylor Kirk*

This December, Chileans are expected to elect their first female president, who happens to be a former Minister of Defense and a single mother. Michelle Bachelet is well ahead in most polls, though carrying less than 50% of the likely vote, making it likely that her victory will ensue from a runoff election. Though well-liked and popular in her homeland, few outside Chile are familiar with her history or her proposals for Latin America's most dynamic economy.

Bachelet's success stems from her ability to project her status as a common Chilean, her anti-Pinochet credentials, and her Socialist party affiliation, whose brand and reputation is in good condition after years of a booming economy under Ricardo Lagos. Her gender seems not to have stunted her popularity, though she puts to rest any accusations of being soft on defense with her success in reforming the military, an institution historically dominated by the male elite. As Minister of Defense she pushed through reforms to upgrade defense capabilities and include women in the military, making the percentage of female conscripts higher even than in the United States. A pediatrician by training, she also headed the Health Ministry until 2002, where she worked to reduce waiting times at public hospitals.

Her proposed economic policies are similar to those of her party colleague, Ricardo Lagos. As socialists, they are both committed to reducing the wide wealth gap and broadening access to education and telecommunications. Bachelet has proposed improvements to the country's pensions system, famously privatized by former secretary of labor and social security, Jose Pinera. Bachelet has said that she will maintain the current sales tax, crack down on tax evasion, and spend carefully the revenues produced by copper exports, which provide almost 15% of government revenues.

If she is in fact elected this December, she will be the first Chilean leader to rule under the newly reformed Constitution, signed by Lagos this September to reduce the entrenched control of the military over the country's politics. Thus she will have the power to fire the armed services commanders and summon the military-affiliated National Security Council, instead of the previous system that granted the NSC automatic advisory powers over the President. The reforms also changed the President's term from 6 years to 4, to coincide with Congressional elections, giving Bachelet less time to prove her worth as just the second female ever to be elected president in a South American nation.

*Thanks to FoS for corrections from original version.

Read more!

Nick Buxton reports on tragedy in Bolivia

Brother's struggle for justice
-By Nick Buston

Nestor knew his brother didn't have long to live. David's eyes were dilating, raw flesh exposed in his gut region, the sheets of the bed were soaked in blood. Outside Nestor could hear gunshots and the sound of flares streaking past the hospital window.

As Nestor screamed for something to be done, he was told there was nothing they could do and that he should prepare to say goodbye. "I felt both furious and helpless," recounted Nestor. "I made a promise then to my brother that I would ensure justice was done." His brother fought on, clinging desperately to life, but two days later he lost consciousness. On 18 October 2003, David Salinas died.

David was a popular 29 year old man with seven brothers and sisters who lived in El Alto, the impoverished and largely indigenous city adjoining the capital La Paz. He worked in a pasta factory with his younger brother Nestor and spent much of his spare time playing football.

"He was really liked in the neighbourhood," said Nestor. "No-one could believe he had been killed." But during September and October 2003, David was one of 67 men, women and children to be killed in cold-blood by armed forces sent out to crush protests by then President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada.

Two years later, no-one has yet been brought to justice for the deaths. No-one has yet taken responsibility for murders that have changed the lives of over 60 families for ever. In one family, both parents were shot leaving a fourteen-year-old looking after six of his brothers and sisters.

For Nestor, it led him to helping set up an association of families of those killed, and the start of a legal and political battle that has taken over his life and will need international solidarity to secure the promise he made to his brother.

I went to visit Nestor as several weeks of activities started to commemorate the events of what is universally known as "October 2003." It's a date that everyone in Bolivia understands like 9-11 in the US.

In a cramped office in a busy neighbourhood in El Alto which had been part of the war-zone in October 2003, we talked frequently interrupted by calls to his mobile from radio stations, the arrival of other family members of the association, and a student who had put together a video of testimonies.

"It's madly busy at the moment. I am one of the youngest "dirigentes" in El Alto," laughed 29 year-old Nestor. "I wouldn't have believed a few years ago that I would be regularly having meetings with Supreme Court officials, the Fiscal General, Senators and Congressmen, but that's part of life now."

Nestor explained that he had become involved when his mother came back from a meeting with the authorities in late October. "She was crying, saying that their requests for justice just led to abuse. Look, they're dead now, there's nothing more you can do, she was told." It was an echo of the voices of the doctors in the hospital.

"I resigned from the pasta factory, and helped set up the Association of the Families of those who died defending our Gas (ASOPAG in Spanish)." The Government offered each family about $5000 in compensation. "That was the price they set for each head," said Nestor bitterly. "But that's not what we were after. We wanted justice."

Nestor then recounted the events that led up to the dark months of October 2003. The Government of Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada (Goni) had been elected narrowly in 2002 and been responsible for enacting a series of neo-liberal economic policies such as privatisation and IMF economic reforms that had led to increasing economic division and social tension.

In September 2003, a proposed new tax in El Alto, imprisonment of an indigenous leader for an act of communal justice, and the announcement of a new gas contract exporting gas through Bolivia's long-held enemy Chile (for depriving Bolivia of access to the sea in the early 20th Century) led to an explosion of protests and blockades across Bolivia. Nationalisation of gas emerged as one of the main demands.

The first deaths took place on 23 September, when an attempt by the Government to "rescue" tourists trapped in Sorata led to shootings in Warisata which claimed the lives of 6 people including an 8 year-old girl, Marlene Nanci Rojas Ramos. As protests intensified, La Paz found itself cut off. To free up the roads and in particular get access to household gas blocked inside various refineries, Goni and his Ministers passed an executive order calling on the army to open the blockades and saying that any "damage to goods or people...[was] guaranteed by the State."

On the 11th October, the army arrived in El Alto and the shootings started. David Salinas was one of the first to be killed. Shot whilst trying to help someone had been injured.
The shootings, however, didn't crush the protests. Instead even more people took to the streets demanding Goni's resignation. He eventually resigned and fled the country on the 17th October.

That's when the real struggle began. The families organised themselves into associations of those killed and the hundreds who were also injured and set up a Committee to bring Goni to Justice. It took them a year to get Congress to agree to authorise legal proceedings against Goni and his Ministers.

They were eventually shamed into acting, when the families dug up the bodies of their loved ones in October 2004 to carry out autopsies. Finally the Government announced the trial of 9 Ministers who could finally be sentenced in November this year.
Meanwhile, the Bolivian Government on 22 June this year filed a request with the US Government to notify Goni, and two Ministers (Carlos Sánchez Berzaín and Jorge Berindoague) of the need to return to Bolivia for a trial. Almost four months later, the Government is yet to even receive a response from the US Government.

It appears that the US Government has chosen to sit on the application and do as little as possible to help those seeking justice. Goni before becoming President lived much of his life in the US. It is well-known that he has many friends in the US administration, and has managed to successfully sell his story there that the deaths were results of responding to "terrorists" and "narco-traffickers".

"Goni was a President who did everything that the US and its associated international institutions like the World Bank asked him to do. Bolivia was the perfect pupil. When they said privatise, he privatised," said Rogelio Mayta, a lawyer for the families when I ask him why it has taken so long to extradite Goni.

"If 67 people had been shot dead by the military on the streets of New York, can you imagine that two years later no-one would have been brought to justice," Rogelio decries. "Could the Government could get away with delays in taking action?"

So the families of those killed have been forced onto the streets again, this time with weekly processions to the US embassy to demand the immediate notification of Goni and his ministers of a trial. On the first week, they were tear-gassed by police, but were back this Thursday with photos of their loved ones and banners: "We want justice", "We won't forget our dead. We won't forget why they died. We won't forget who killed them."
"To be honest, at times, my energy to fight goes up and down," says Nestor. "I don't always understand the whole legal process. But I have a deep pain inside and can not allow myself to do nothing."

He becomes angry when I cite Goni's statements that he was saving democracy by preventing a coup. "Look who was killed. A child of five, a pregnant woman, mothers of families. Are you saying they wanted to overthrow the country? You don't kill for democracy. You don't violate human rights for democracy."

Victories like the Congress authorising the legal process against the Ministers have enabled him to keep fighting. He says if they fail to get justice to begin with, they will keep looking at alternatives.

For Nestor, his fight is also a wider struggle against impunity. "We are not just fighting for the families, but against a culture of impunity. If we allow Goni to remain free, we allow impunity. That means that people who take decisions to kill remain free and can kill again."
A personal fight has become entwined in a wider struggle against a culture of impunity that has led to massacres across the Latin American continent - under Pinochet in Chile, Fujimori in Peru and Guatemala under years of military rule to name just a few. It has led his association to contacts with many families across Latin America who lost loved ones, shot or "disappeared" by the military.

"When we finally see Goni in prison, we will have made a huge historical step in the fight against impunity and I will have kept my promise to my brother."

Take Action
Your support could really help the families. When I asked what people could do, Nestor said the first thing is put pressure on the US administration to deliver the notification of trial to Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, Carlos Sánchez Berzaín and Jorge Berindoague. You can send a message to the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice by posting a message on their website. He also said some of the families are in dire need of financial assistance after losing their principal income-earners. If you would like to make a donation, contact me and I will liaise to pass on any money.

Read more!